Toronto’s real estate market had an uneven start in January. Overall transactions decreased, driven primarily by a struggling condominium market, while the freehold market saw an uptick in sales compared to the same period last year. Despite a significant increase in new listings across all housing types, prices remained relatively stable.
As the calendar flipped to January, we’ve moved even more into a buyer’s market as the sales to new listings ratio sits at 36% and 26% for freehold and condo properties.
Following five interest rate reductions since mid-2024, the real estate market was anticipated to rebound in Q4 2024. However, uncertainty arose when the incoming U.S. administration announced tariffs on Canadian goods, affecting both the Canadian economy and additional risk to the real estate sector. Earlier this week, the U.S. confirmed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
Amid these developments, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) hosted its annual 2025 Market Outlook & Year in Review event last week. The topline forecast indicates that average GTA prices are expected to rise by 2.6%, reaching $1,147,000, while sales are projected to increase by 12.4% to 76,000. Should you be interested in receiving a copy of the full report, please feel free to reach out to me directly.
Here are some key takeaways from the recent TRREB report titled “The Triple Challenge: Affordability, Housing Supply, and Traffic”:
– Lower borrowing costs will result in increased sales
– Economic uncertainty will be a drag on consumer confidence
– Strong rental demand expected in 2025
– Elevated listings will keep a lid on price growth
– New home sales are trending lower
– Traffic congestion is a major concern and has significant impact on employment, productivity, daily activities and local economy
– High housing taxes in Ontario (ie, property tax, development charges, land transfer tax, vacant home tax) are limiting new construction.
– Landlord and Tenant Board in crisis with more than 53,000 unresolved cases as of Feb 2024.
In the Q&A portion of the meeting, given how sluggish the condo market is, many of the questions related to the negative impact for investors related to the challenges at the Landlord and Tenant Board as mentioned in the October 2024 newsletter.
As for 2025, there’s a lot of uncertainty: an upcoming municipal budget; provincial election; likely early federal election; potential far reaching effects of a trade skirmish with our neighbours to the south and what that would do to interest rates and inflation. I won’t try and forecast too much but for those with stable jobs looking to move, affordability and choice this spring will be better than the prior couple years.
Shen Shoots the Breeze
I’m heading to Thunder Bay with a group of curling buddies. It will be my first trip to Northern Ontario so I’m preparing for activities in temperatures that could dip into the negative 30s with the windchill.
Dressing for winter should come naturally for us living in the Great White North. My parents spent their early years in a tropical climate so their approach to the cold was simple: pile on as many layers as possible. This is the method I’ve relied on, but I’ve come to realize there are better ways.
When I visited Mountain Equipment Company (MEC), I learned that layering is key but overdoing it can be counterproductive. Staying dry is paramount, so it’s important to not get drenched by too much sweating. The first layer should be moisture-wicking base layers—think wool or wool-blend underwear, including bras and briefs. Next comes long underwear. How thick these should be depends on your activity level and how sensitive you are to the cold. Personally, I prefer lighter weight long johns; anything too thick feels suffocating when I wear pants over them.
Tall socks are a must—worn over your long underwear. If it’s really cold, you might want to add insulated shorts or pants under your snow pants, though I haven’t found this necessary. A tip for those new to skiing: opt for insulated shorts instead of long pants, as they leave enough room for your ski boots to comfortably fit around your calves. The last thing you want is to restrict circulation.
For my upper body, I wear a 100% wool sweater or a lightweight fleece top. The final layers are a winter coat or a thin duvet jacket, paired with a waterproof shell. If you’re buying a shell, consider sizing up to ensure it’s roomy enough for layers. It’s unlikely you’ll only wear a t-shirt under your coat (unless you’re a West Coaster). I made that mistake when I purchased my Canada Goose coat during a hot October and it’s a little too tight for my bulkier sweaters. Finally, don’t forget a good neck warmer with moisture-wicking properties, a warm hat, and mittens—avoid gloves, as mittens are far warmer.
Given where I’m headed, I’ll also need a balaclava. Some people swear by disposable hand warmers for their feet and hands, but my mom introduced me to thin sheepskin insoles for my shoes, and I’m currently hunting for fur hand warmers to slip into my mittens. Who knows, I may even thrift a fur coat and make my own!
I’ll be bundled up and ready for Tbay – hope this layering strategy will also keep you warm and toasty and allow you to better embrace the beauty of winter.