Headwinds and Tailwinds

Continuing the tread that started in autumn, Toronto’s November real estate market sustained both month-on-month as well as year-over-year price increases across all key housing types.

This was primarily attributable to tighter market conditions as new listings fell amidst strong demand.  At the end of November, there was only 1 month of inventory in Toronto’s condo market and only three weeks of inventory in the freehold market.

As we end the year, I’m often asked what to expect for next year. The market will experience headwinds such as higher inflation and interest rates in 2022.  A few clients referenced a UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index report issued in October 2021 where Toronto was listed as having the 2nd highest risk (behind Frankfurt).

Affordability is definitely an issue but as long as Canada continues to be an attractive destination, increased immigration will be the tailwind that will drive the Toronto’s real estate market.

Looking ahead, the numbers that stand out to me are 401,000, 411,000 and 421,000.  These are Canada’s target immigration levels for 2021-2023.  Canada is on track in meet the 2021 target as 313,000 immigrants were landed from Jan-Oct 2021.  This is a significant increase over 2020 when Canada landed 184,000 of its target of 341,000 immigrants.  (Note:  Landed includes foreign nationals new to Canada or temporary residents already in Canada converting status to permanent residence). 

In 2020, 45% of new immigrants in Canada settled in Ontario.  With culture, sports, universities, health care and entertainment in the 416, I expect strong demand for Toronto’s real estate.

And now over to Shen…

Shen Shoots The Breeze

In previous years, I hosted an annual Cookie Exchange in December. It was fun times catching up with many baker friends to ooh and aah all the cookies as they graced the dining room table. With each baker bringing 4-5 dozen cookies, one year we had over 1,000 cookies on my dining table. Although I miss the reunions, I don’t miss the extra calories.

I still get requests for is this tried-and-true cookie: Momofuku Milk Bar’s Blueberry and Cream Cookies  I came across it when I was in New York City. Christina Tosi, one of the founders of Momofuku Milk Bar wanted to create a cookie with all of the crumbly goodness of a blueberry muffin top.

These cookies take a chewy-crisp cookie dough and add tiny dried blueberries and Milk Crumb – little salty-sweet nuggets of milk powder and white chocolate for cookies that are even more enjoyable than snacking on the top of a blueberry muffin. It’s not really a Christmas cookie per se but it’s super delicious.

Wishing you peace, love and joy this Christmas and holiday season.

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